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Four stocks to watch for macro signals
  + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFour stocks to watch for macro signalsJake Schurmeier, Harbor Capital Advisors portfolio manager, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss what stocks he's watching, the path to a Fed rate cut, and more.
Persons: Jake Schurmeier Organizations: Harbor Capital Advisors
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia has 'remarkably high' standards to beat ahead, says Harbor Capital's Jake SchurmeierJake Schurmeier, Harbor Capital Advisors portfolio manager, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the future outlook on Nvidia's stock, whether tech stocks may represent a bubble, and more.
Persons: Jake Schurmeier Jake Schurmeier Organizations: Nvidia, Harbor Capital Advisors
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe likelihood of fewer than three rate cuts in 2024: Here's what you need to knowJake Schurmeier, Harbor Capital Advisors portfolio manager, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential timing of Fed rate cuts, the relationships between equity markets and inflation, and more.
Persons: Jake Schurmeier, Steve Liesman Organizations: Harbor Capital Advisors
Asset manager Impax has debuted a new socially responsible investing strategy, allowing investors to support companies with a track record of employee satisfaction. "The market typically ignores culture," said Fairbanks, who worked in sustainable investing for more than a decade before joining Impax. This strategy has evolved into the Impax Global Social Leaders Fund (IGSLX) launched late last year. To rank companies, Impax found relevant data from third-party sources before diving into fundamental research. A look inside the fund There are some stocks in the fund that Fairbanks sees as particularly exemplary of the broader strategy.
Persons: Impax, Amber Fairbanks, Fairbanks, it's Organizations: Impax, Social Leaders Fund, It's, Harbor Capital Advisors, Fairbanks, Nvidia Locations: MSCI
Executives don't need to worry about Irrational misrepresenting their company, and participation can open them up to potential inclusion in products such as an ETF, van Adelsberg said. In total, the ETF recently held nearly 150 equities and is benchmarked to the CIBC Human Capital Index. Still, the team noted some challenges in building broader awareness of what human capital is or why it matters. "In this market, what we're seeing is that those companies who have strong human capital ratings are outperforming," van Adelsberg said. "The role that human capital plays in driving future equity performance isn't going down.
Persons: doesn't, Kristof Gleich, , it's, Gleich, , Morningstar, HAPI, David van Adelsberg, van Adelsberg, Eli Lilly, Johnson, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase, they've, It's Organizations: Capital Factor, Capital Advisors, Irrational, ETF, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Morningstar, Mastercard, Berkshire, CIBC Human, JPMorgan, Securities, Exchange
Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, , Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York
The social pillar of the environmental, social and corporate governance investing framework — known as ESG in short — has been dubbed the "middle child" largely due to data challenges. For years, the social pillar has been considered relatively nebulous and hard to quantify. And it comes despite the fact that the ESG investing framework has found itself in hot water politically. In these cases, she said the social pillar comes into play in ensuring a carbon transition is equitable and just. A fraught environmentGlobally, it appears social themes will become more clear and important to investors over time.
Persons: Michael Nagle, ESG, Michael Young, Young, They're, Marian Macindoe, Insperity, Fuller, Macindoe, that's, Yijia Chen Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Sustainable Institute, BNP, Securities and Exchange, Commission, Parnassus Investments, Irrational Capital, Microsoft, Apple, Apple Hospitality, Calvert Research, Management Locations: New York, U.S, United States, Harbor, ESG
Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, , Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas
NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - As the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance boosts Treasury yields and slams stocks, some investors are preparing for more pain ahead. AQR's analysis showed that trend-following hedge funds tend to outperform when rates are elevated, as they hold large cash positions that benefit from higher rates. Of course, plenty of investors believe the Fed will cut rates as soon as economic growth starts to wobble. Futures tied to the Fed’s key policy rate show investors pricing in the first rate cut in July 2024. Still, he has been holding off on adding to the firm’s holdings of small-cap consumer stocks, wary there may be more market volatility ahead as investors digest higher rates and other factors, including elevated energy prices.
Persons: , Jake Schurmeier, Dan Villalon, Keith Lerner, Lerner, Robert Pavlik, Schurmeier, he’s, Eric Kuby, Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall, Carolina, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: Fed, Apple, Nvidia, Treasury, U.S ., Harbor Capital Advisors, AQR Capital Management, Advisory Services, Reuters, Dakota Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Locations: Harbor
Now, the inverse has happened as stocks rally, inflation steadily falls, and the labor market stays healthy. By any historical measure, this is still a really strong labor market," he said. "There's a lot of market concern — understandably so — about the sustainability of the strong labor market," Porter said. "There are clear signs that we're weakening at the margin," Schurmeier said of the labor market. "And they're able to thread the needle on the other part of their mandate, which is the labor market."
Persons: John Porter, Jason Draho, Porter, David Lebovitz, Lebovitz, they're, Draho, Jonathan Curtis, Curtis, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, they'll, shouldn't, Charles Lemonides, Lemonides, Greg Calnon, Calnon, Franklin Equity Group's Curtis, he's Organizations: Newton Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth, Asset Management, Franklin Equity Group, Workers, Northwestern, Harbor Capital Advisors, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Franklin Equity
Surging energy stocks in 2022 hurt the performance of many of the largest funds, and political backlash has gained traction with several states moving to block state funds from being invested in ESG products. According to AllianceBernstein, there were $12.1 billion of outflows from ESG funds in North America during the first quarter, although that was due to large outflows from a handful of funds. "This was primarily driven by redemptions from a few large passive ESG funds (e.g., iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF ) due to underlying investors rebalancing their factor exposure. Clearly the political backlash against ESG also weighed on sentiment and demand for ESG products in North America," AllianceBernstein's Zhihan Ma said in an early May note to clients. There were $2.7 billion of inflows into ESG funds in Western Europe during the first quarter, according to Bernstein.
Wednesday’s data showed consumer prices growing at a slower pace than expected last month, bolstering the argument that inflation is decelerating. Yet some investors believe markets may have already accounted for a mild inflation slowdown and say further gains in stocks could depend on whether upcoming corporate earnings - especially results from banks - can beat forecasts. Earnings per share for the six largest U.S. banks are expected to fall 10% from the same quarter last year, according to Refinitv data. Overall, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv as of April 7 showed. That weakness would come on the heels of a 3.2% earnings fall in the fourth quarter of 2022, a back-to-back decline known as an earnings recession which has not occurred since COVID-19 blasted corporate results in 2020.
The S&P 500 is down 14.4% year-to-date. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, supporting the view that inflation was ebbing. Further ahead, some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are now forecasting that the Fed's monetary policy tightening will bring on a recession next year. In options markets, traders appear more preoccupied with not missing out on more gains in stocks than guarding against future declines. The one-month moving average of daily trading in bearish put contracts against bullish calls on the S&P 500 index-tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's options is at its lowest since January 2022, according to Trade Alert data.
NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - A sputtering U.S. stock rally faces a double-dose of potentially market moving events next week: U.S. midterm elections and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Consumer price data has driven huge market moves this year, as surging inflation forced investors to ramp up expectations for Fed rate hikes. A stronger-than-expected reading on Nov. 10 would likely bolster the case for the Fed to continue. "If we get lower inflation reading then you could get a relief rally based on that data,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. "The results of the midterm will give greater visibility and help draw investor confidence higher," he said.
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